National Review Online has several good round ups of where the Democrats are in terms of vote counts. Daniel Foster recounts estimates that Democrats are still 10 away:
In a press conference on Capitol Hill today, Rep. David Dreier (R., Calif.), ranking Republican on the House Rules Committee, said the word around the House is that Democrats are still about 10 votes away from securing the 216 they will need to pass changes to the health-care bill. Dreier added that that number might be moving in the wrong direction for Democrats.
And Jeffery Anderson details the hurdles that Democrats face:
If Obamacare’s opponents keep up the pressure on wavering House Democrats, victory is within our grasp. Obamacare faces three major hurdles to passage. You might reasonably assume that these are as follows: It’s a colossally bad bill; it’s an extremely unpopular bill; and members of Congress — despite what President Obama apparently thinks — do care about getting reelected. While you’d be right on all three counts, I’m talking about more specific hurdles related to the concrete numbers in the House.
Things have changed. The Democrats need every member of their caucus who voted “yes” last time to vote “yes” again — or, for every defection, they need to convert a prior “no” vote to their side. They don’t have a single vote to spare…
They need two-thirds of our 40. Andy Wickersham and I have listed the 40 Democrats we think are the most key to passage or defeat. Assuming that all other Democratic members vote the same way as last time — and that all Republicans vote “no” (as they will) — the Democrats need 27 of these 40 to vote “yes” in order to pass the bill. This is a high bar when you consider that 35 of these 40 reside in Republican territory — many of them solidly so — and 24 supported the Stupak Amendment.
Early returns aren’t good for Obamacare supporters….
Other Democrats are more likely to swing against Obamacare than for it. Beyond these 40, the Democrats are far more likely to lose additional members who voted “yes” last time than they are to convert additional members who previously voted “no.”
Hopefully those wavering Democrats have also seen IWV’s new poll that gives them many more reasons to vote against this bad bill.
No one should fool themselves though that the fight is over. Undoubtedly Pelosi and company are trying everything they can to get the numbers they need, so no one in the opposition can afford to let up.