GEB International performed a survey of Republicans who voted in the May 15 primary for US Senate on Wednesday, May 16, 2012 to test the effectiveness of IWV’s Repeal Pledge campaign within the context of the primary. The sample of 300 respondents were randomly selected and reflects overall voter participation percentages distributed by media market. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5.6 percent.

The survey illustrates 3 key points:

First, 38 percent of voters made the decision for whom to vote in the final week of the campaign.  Among that group, 58 percent voted for Deb Fischer.

Second, among Nebraska GOP primary voters, the single most important issue in the campaign was ObamaCare and its repeal – even 20 percent of Bruning voters said it was the issue that mattered most to them.  In fact, 57 percent of respondents said that Deb Fischer’s signing the Repeal Pledge mattered to them.  Interestingly, 50 percent of respondents who remembered getting a phone call from a doctor on ObamaCare voted for Fischer.

Third, while much happens in the last week of a campaign, when we asked voters to tell us what impacted their vote more – Fischer’s endorsement by Sarah Palin, or Fischer’s signature on the Repeal Pledge – voters, by 2.5 to 1, responded that the signing of the Repeal Pledge mattered more to them (35-14 percent).  The Repeal Pledge also mattered more than the Palin endorsement to Self-Identified Conservative Fischer voters (37-17 percent) and Self-Identified Moderate Fischer voters (34-10 percent).

While many factors contribute to electoral successes, on thing is demonstrably clear through this survey – ObamaCare, Deb Fischer’s signing of the Repeal Pledge and its subsequent advertising was a driving force behind Fischer’s upset victory over John Bruning and Don Stenberg. 

PDF Document of Survey Memo